Study forecasts growth in fibre-based food packaging by 2045

A new study from UPM Specialty Materials and consultancy Smithers suggests fibre-based materials are expected to play an increasingly significant role in food packaging over the next two decades, supported by advances in barrier technologies, evolving regulation and changing market expectations.

The research gathered the views of more than 230 packaging professionals from across the global value chain to explore how food packaging is expected to develop by 2045.

According to the findings, respondents expect fibre-based packaging to increase its share of the global food packaging market from 37% today to 42% by 2045. Around 71% believe fibre-based materials will be regarded as the most sustainable packaging option, citing improvements in barrier coating technologies that could expand their use across applications traditionally dominated by plastics.

We’re encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality.

Janne Varvemaa, Director, Products and Technology, UPM Specialty Materials.

The study also points to a regulatory environment in which sustainability requirements are expected to play a greater role in packaging decisions. More than seven in 10 respondents (71%) believe sustainability will become a mandatory regulatory requirement rather than a point of competitive differentiation, while 88% expect future legislation to significantly influence packaging material choices.

Participants also identified Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation fees as key factors likely to encourage the use of recyclable packaging while increasing costs for materials that are more difficult to recycle.

The report forecasts that global recycling rates for food packaging could rise from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045. However, respondents acknowledged that landfill and incineration are likely to remain part of the waste management mix, with regional differences in recycling infrastructure expected to continue. Europe is projected to maintain a leading position in recycling, while the US and Asia-Pacific are expected to face differing regulatory and infrastructure challenges.

The evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations, particularly EPR and eco-modulation are directly influencing material choices. Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is also opening up new applications for fibre-based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives.

Ciaran Little, VP, Global Consulting Information Division, Smithers.

According to the study, continued investment in material innovation and recycling infrastructure will be important in supporting the transition towards more sustainable food packaging systems.