Alupro publishes independent econometric review of the UK PRN market

Alupro has released an in-depth econometric analysis of the Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) market, looking back at data collated over the past 12 years to dig deeper into the fundamental relationship between PRN prices and their resulting impact on recycling tonnages.

Amid a complex period of regulatory transformation, the report aims to provide comprehensive, quantitative insight to help guide future policy decisions. Alongside evaluating the performance of the PRN system and drawing unbiased conclusions from independent statistical analysis, the initiative set out to answer three important questions:

1. Whether higher PRN prices actually incentivise higher recycling tonnages
2. Whether PRN prices rationally respond to evidence surpluses and shortfalls
3. Whether domestic reprocessing and export markets respond differently to PRN price changes

Collating evidence from seven material types, over 156 monthly observations, across both domestic and export routes (Jan 2013-Dec 2025), the report evaluates each of these questions individually and reveals a number of critical findings. Firstly, the data presented suggests a significant, positive association between higher PRN prices and long-run received tonnages across six of seven material types, with plastic emerging as the most price sensitive. This is evidence of the price incentive mechanism working as intended.

In addition, the report reveals a rational, inverse relationship between PRN prices and evidence availability, with surpluses applying downward PRN pressure and shortfalls applying upward pressure. Finally, analysis finds that export markets are highly responsive to PRN prices, with higher prices significantly associated with stronger increases in exported tonnage than domestically reprocessed tonnage. This suggests that export markets act as a release valve when targets are under pressure and domestic reprocessing is operating close to capacity or unable to respond quickly, enabling compliance to be achieved.

Focusing on aluminium specifically, there are two key findings. Firstly, aluminium has an asymmetric model, meaning PRN price increases and decreases impact recycled tonnage differently. Importantly, rises in PRN prices are significantly associated with higher recycledtonnage, whereas no significant association exists for PRN price decreases. This implies that gains made in recycled tonnage due to higher PRN prices are kept longer term.

Secondly, while all testable materials see an increase in the share of export tonnage under higher PRN prices, aluminium is the only material to see domestic tonnage decrease and export tonnage increase as PRN prices rise. These findings emphasis the material specific nature of recycling, demonstrating that the PRN market is a separate market for each material, rather than a uniform system.

Reviewing the system from a neutral standpoint, the findings aim to inform decision-making, providing an evidence base for future regulatory consultations and demonstrating the benefits and drawbacks of the PRN system across multiple different material types.

Amid ferocious debate regarding the value of the UK’s PRN system, we wanted to present a balanced analysis of the incentive and understand the relationship between PRN pricing and recycling tonnages. Rather than supporting or dismissing PRNs, we’ve simply collated a factual base of evidence to better understand the scheme’s performance over the past decade.

By digging deeper into the data, we’ve been able to answer a number of important questions. As the UK navigates a period of regulatory change, including future reforms of the PRN system, we hope that this report acts as an evidence base for consultations.

Stephen Devine, Membership & Business Development Manager at Alupro.

For more information about Alupro, or to download a copy of the PRN market report, visit https://alupro.org.uk/sustainability/prn-system-review-2026/.